Warren Buffet in a gold rush

Warren Buffett: The name stands for unshakeable investment principles and long-term success. The head of the Berkshire Hathaway holding company now strikes again: He wants to buy two major American gold jewellery manufacturers and forge the biggest provider in the US from them. This is not a small deal, and it must be asked what the strange old gentlemen from sleepy Omaha in the State of Nebraska finds so exciting about it.

FRANKFURT. Until recently, the billionaire did not care much about precious metals. Less than ten years have passed since the passionate Cola drinker ridiculed gold. His handed down statement back then: People dig up gold from somewhere out of the ground, melt and forge it into shapes, dig another hole, bury it again and employ people to guard it. If Martians were watching us, they would be shaking their heads.

It is known of Buffett that he stands for investing in cheap objects like no other investor. The metal is still relatively cheap despite its rally, which has been lasting for several years now; shares, for instance, have risen a lot more. Fundamentally there are also many reasons for gold. The global mine production is tending to drop, while major investors are beginning to make huge purchases after decades of abstinence.

This is where the Buffet coup fits very nicely. Representatives from the gold sector see it the same. The former head of the second largest mine, Pierre Lassonde, sees the gold price at Christmas at 750 dollars per ounce (31 grams). Let alone Robert McEwen, head of the U.S. Gold Corp. mining company and one of the brightest in the industry. His latest forecast: gold will easily hit 2,000 dollars by 2010.

One may dismiss such optimism as the professional enthusiasm of industry representatives. But Buffet’s change in opinion makes you prick your ears. And the latest price tendencies for precious metals should not cause any confusion: gold is hovering around 660 dollars, and seems to want to anticipate the summer break for the investors. Even during the last major rally in the 1970s, the gold price dropped significantly in the summer months. There was only one exception: In 1979, but then the market was already overheating – shortly after that the two decades of decline began.

Gold fans can therefore relax. If history repeats itself, they have enough time to enter, whether this is via purchases of physical metal, shares or funds. If the hoped for price increases do not materialise, investors can still find some consolation: Super investor Buffett and the gold legend McEwen will also be wrong then. They would be in best company. The probability calculation, however, speaks against an error of the luminaries.